300 Hours: Your Guide to the CFA Exams
  • Articles
    • CFA Program
    • CAIA
    • FRM
    • View All Articles
    • RSS
  • Forum
    • Recent Discussions
    • CFA Exam Topics >
      • Level I
      • Level II
      • Level III
    • Careers & Networking
    • Other
    • Free Practice Questions
  • Materials
    • Kaplan Schweser
    • Fitch Learning
    • Wiley
    • Bloomberg CFA Exam Prep
    • AdaptPrep
  • Reviews
    • Kaplan Schweser
    • Fitch Learning
    • Wiley
    • Bloomberg CFA Exam Prep
    • AdaptPrep
    • CFA Institute
    • Rate Your Provider
  • Guides
    • Free Guides >
      • I. Preparation >
        • Study Calendar - CFA exam dates, events and deadlines
        • BA II Plus vs HP 12C
        • Recommended Reading
        • Study Plan
        • The 10 Commandments >
          • Lvl I Commandments
          • Lvl II Commandments
          • Lvl III Commandments
      • II. Studying >
        • CFA Cheat Sheets
        • Free Study Material
        • CFA Exam Proctor
        • Study Music
        • TI BA II Plus Tips
        • Practice Exam Guide
        • Free CFA L1 Practice Test A
        • Free CFA L1 Practice Test B
        • Free CFA L2 Practice Test
        • Free CFA L3 Practice Test
      • III. Exam Day & Results >
        • Historical Pass Rates
        • Exam Day Checklist
        • Understand Your Results Charts
        • MPS Estimates
    • CFA Exam Insights >
      • PDF
      • Print (Amazon)
    • BA II Plus Guide >
      • PDF
      • Print (Amazon)
  • Offers

Infographic: How Likely Are You to Pass the CFA Exam with Just Random Answers?

12/10/2017

0 Comments

 
Picture
By Zee

We've all wondered it at some point. Probably in despair in the midst of cramming some particularly confusing concept, or some particularly tricky practice exam.

Hmm, what are the chances that if I simply answered at random, that I pass the CFA exam anyway?

As an intellectual exercise, I got to thinking seriously about this a while ago, and decided to take the calculation up properly and document the results. Read on!
Now I'm not the best statistician in the world, so feel free to audit my method and let me know in the comments. I used a case-by-case binomial approach for this, and used the CFA Level II exam as an example, i.e.:
  • 120 questions
  • 33.33% chance of getting the right answer
  • Passing mark: Analysed for >60% and >70%
120 calculations were done with the formula:
Picture
for k = 0, 1, 2, ..., n, where:
Picture
X = case where question is answered correctly
n = 120
p = 33.33%

I've combined the resulting probabilities into an infographic, summarising not just the exact chances, but comparing them to other situations as well. 

Note that the chances for CFA Level I and III are going to be even less, due to the fact that for Level I, there are 240 questions rather than 120, and for CFA Level III there is a structured answer section, which probably implies a random chance of success at near 0.
Picture
Did the answer surprise you, especially when compared to other unlikely events? Let us know in the comments below!
 

 
0 Comments


View All Articles



Leave a Reply.







    view Full
    ​Calendar
    Add to my
    ​calendar

    Featured Offer
    View All Current Offers

    Popular Articles


Facebook
Twitter
300 Hours on LinkedIn
Christine on LinkedIn
RSS
Our Full Disclaimer
About 300 Hours
CFA Institute does not endorse, promote or warrant the accuracy or quality of 300 Hours.
​CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst are registered trademarks owned by CFA Institute.
CAIA® and Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst
 are registered trademarks owned by Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst Association.
FRM® and Financial Risk Manager
 are registered trademarks owned by Global Association of Risk Professionals.
Copyright © 300 Hours. All Rights Reserved.